Although the year-on-year decline has expanded, but the excavator sales still maintain the ring growth.

　　On the evening of December 7, China Construction Machinery Industry Association released data showing that, according to the statistics of the excavator's main manufacturing enterprises, sales of all types of excavators 14,900 units in November this year, a year-on-year decline of 37%, this decline compared to the previous month increased by about 8 percentage points.

　　Ring look, November excavator sales increased by 340 units, an increase of about 2.3%, and is mainly reflected in the growth of the domestic market. 7,484 units of excavators sold domestically in November, a year-on-year decline of 48%, an increase of about 10%.

　　Export sales declined for two consecutive months, selling 7,440 units, down 19.8% year-on-year, down 4.5%.

　　In the past two years, with the downturn in the domestic construction machinery market, exports have become the main performance growth point of major Chinese leading enterprises. For example, last year, Sany Heavy Industry (600031.SH) overseas revenue year-on-year growth of nearly 50%; Zoomlion Heavy Industry (000157.SZ) overseas revenue year-on-year growth of more than 70%.

　　But this year, especially in the second half of the year, the high growth advantage of exports began to weaken. Excavators, for example, from June to November, the gap between the domestic and overseas markets is gradually narrowing, and exports have declined year-on-year for six consecutive months.

　　At the same time, excavators also appeared similar to the new energy industry trade barriers. China Trade Remedy Information Network on November 17th news shows that the British Trade Remedy Agency issued a notice, at the application of British enterprise JCB Heavy Products Ltd. to launch anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on excavators (Certain Excavators) originating in China.

　　The investigation period of the above case is from July 1, 2022 to June 30, 2023, and the damage investigation period is from July 1, 2019 to June 30, 2023.

　　Data from the "China Construction Machinery Manufacturing Industry Market Demand Forecast and Investment Strategy Planning Analysis Report" released by the Foresight Industry Research Institute shows that the UK was the 14th largest export region for China's construction machinery products in 2022, with exports amounting to US$829 million, up 27.7% year-on-year.

　　For the above trade investigation, LiuGong (000528.SZ) responded on the interactive platform that its excavator is mainly produced and exported by domestic, there is no low price dumping, and the UK excavator revenue overseas accounted for only about 2%, the overall impact is limited, for the international market related policy changes are actively studying the response.

　　Sany Heavy Industry publicly stated that it will respond uniformly under the guidance of the China Electrical and Mechanical Association, and it is expected that in the short term, it will have a certain impact on the sales of China's excavators in the United Kingdom, because its main purpose is to impose tariffs through the double-reverse investigation. In the long run, against the background of increasing trade friction around the world, it may accelerate the layout of Chinese enterprises' overseas production capacity.

　　In recent years, Chinese enterprises are accelerating the pace of "going out". Zoomlion has mentioned in the financial report, in Indonesia, India, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and other key countries localization development strategy has been effective, last year's sales growth of more than 100% year-on-year.

　　China Galaxy Securities research report said that the domestic excavator because of its technological innovation and competitive price is very popular overseas, the international market for infrastructure construction of the continuous demand, but also for the domestic excavator exports provide a broad opportunity. Engineering machinery overseas market potential is still large, with the bottom of the North American real estate recovery, exports are still worth looking forward to.

　　Excavators are widely used in water conservancy, electricity and roads and other infrastructure construction, as well as real estate development, mining and other fields, its sales are regarded as the wind vane of the construction machinery industry and economic barometer.

　　For the performance of the domestic market, the agency said, is expected to 2024 construction machinery domestic market sentiment in the policy to promote, demand is expected to gradually improve, sales data is expected to show marginal improvement.

　　Haitong Securities research report also pointed out that although the industry in the short and medium term pressure, but the future demand for excavators is still resilient. With the counter-cyclical policy gradually force, the domestic demand ring may appear certain recovery, and the industry after a new round of price war, the pattern may again bottom out to good.

　　In addition, the leading enterprises overseas layout perfect into the harvest period, exports may continue to maintain the growth trend, is expected to smooth out the domestic sales downturn brought about by industry fluctuations, the overall industry sales growth is expected to improve.